{"id":8564,"date":"2019-08-15T10:22:39","date_gmt":"2019-08-15T08:22:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.folkbro.com\/uncertainty-analysis\/"},"modified":"2019-08-15T10:26:50","modified_gmt":"2019-08-15T08:26:50","slug":"uncertainty-analysis","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.folkbro.com\/en\/uncertainty-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Uncertainty Analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

[su_heading style=”default” size=”24″ align=”center” margin=”20″ class=””]Uncertainty analysis according to the Successive principle[\/su_heading]<\/h4>\n

Successive<\/span> principle<\/span><\/h4>\n

The method aims to capture a realistic cost picture of a future object.<\/span> Compared to traditional calculation methodology, greater focus is placed on identifying, analyzing and assessing uncertainties.<\/span> The concept of “uncertainty” contains both risks and opportunities.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Complete uncertainty analysis<\/h4>\n

Of the largest and most complex projects, complete uncertainty analyzes are carried out according to the method successive principle.<\/span> Such an analysis is carried out by a cross-sectional analysis group (8-15 persons) going through 2 days and analyzing the project under the guidance of an impartial moderator.<\/span><\/p>\n

Before conducting the uncertainty analysis, the project must have produced its own basic calculation.<\/span> This calculation and, above all, its volume data, should be available in the analysis if questions arise during the cost assessment step.<\/span><\/p>\n

After the analysis, the different results are compared with each other.<\/span> It is then the responsibility of the project manager to update the calculation and take appropriate measures to eliminate the greatest uncertainties.<\/span><\/p>\n

For the analysis to be effective, it is important that an informative presentation of the project is made at the beginning of the analysis.<\/span> This presentation should describe:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  • purpose of the project (why is the project being built<\/li>\n
  • functional requirements (eg capacity, standard, capacity, speeds etc.<\/li>\n
  • project scope (rough quantification)<\/li>\n
  • known and feared problems and problem points (eg difficult land areas and passages)<\/li>\n
  • some form of graphical presentation of the plant’s intended route in the terrain (vertically and vertically)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Simplified uncertainty analysis<\/h4>\n

    The simplified uncertainty analysis follows the same methodology as the complete analysis, but it is done with a smaller analysis group and in a shorter time.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The analysis group should amount to at least 5 people, of which at least 2 are not actively included in the project group.<\/span> Before the analysis, the project must have produced its own basic calculation.<\/span><\/p>\n

    The method is based on the following four principles<\/h4>\n<\/div><\/section>\n
    \n