[su_heading style=”default” size=”24″ align=”center” margin=”20″ class=””]Uncertainty analysis according to the Successive principle[/su_heading]

Successive principle

The method aims to capture a realistic cost picture of a future object. Compared to traditional calculation methodology, greater focus is placed on identifying, analyzing and assessing uncertainties. The concept of ”uncertainty” contains both risks and opportunities.

Complete uncertainty analysis

Of the largest and most complex projects, complete uncertainty analyzes are carried out according to the method successive principle. Such an analysis is carried out by a cross-sectional analysis group (8-15 persons) going through 2 days and analyzing the project under the guidance of an impartial moderator.

Before conducting the uncertainty analysis, the project must have produced its own basic calculation. This calculation and, above all, its volume data, should be available in the analysis if questions arise during the cost assessment step.

After the analysis, the different results are compared with each other. It is then the responsibility of the project manager to update the calculation and take appropriate measures to eliminate the greatest uncertainties.

For the analysis to be effective, it is important that an informative presentation of the project is made at the beginning of the analysis. This presentation should describe:

  • purpose of the project (why is the project being built
  • functional requirements (eg capacity, standard, capacity, speeds etc.
  • project scope (rough quantification)
  • known and feared problems and problem points (eg difficult land areas and passages)
  • some form of graphical presentation of the plant’s intended route in the terrain (vertically and vertically)

Simplified uncertainty analysis

The simplified uncertainty analysis follows the same methodology as the complete analysis, but it is done with a smaller analysis group and in a shorter time.

The analysis group should amount to at least 5 people, of which at least 2 are not actively included in the project group. Before the analysis, the project must have produced its own basic calculation.

The method is based on the following four principles